Macro Dashboard · 13 series · sourced from FRED, BLS, BEA, CBOE

What the economy is
doing right now.

The thirteen series that actually move markets. Updated against public Federal Reserve and BLS data feeds. Each card carries the context a real strategist would write in their morning note.

Recession Probability · 12mo

18%

Low / Moderate

LowModerateHigh

The curve has un-inverted, the labor market is loosening but not breaking, and the consumer is still spending. Soft landing remains the base case.

Yield curve (2s10s)+23bp · un-inverted
Sahm RuleTriggered briefly mid-2024
Initial jobless claims210k · low
ISM Manufacturing50.2 · just above expansion
Conference Board LEIStill negative YoY
High-yield spreads305bp · tight

Yield Curve · 10Y vs 2Y · 24 months

The classic recession indicator

Above zeroInverted

Fed Funds

4.25%

10-Year UST

4.18%

2-Year UST

3.95%

Filter

FEDFUNDS

Fed Funds Rate

rates

4.25%

-0.25

Cutting cycle. Three 25bp cuts since Sep 2025. Market pricing two more in 2026.

FRED · Federal Reserve BoardPrior 4.5

DGS10

10-Year Treasury Yield

rates

4.18%

-0.14

Down 14bp this month. Sub-4.5% supports equity multiples.

FRED · US TreasuryPrior 4.32

DGS2

2-Year Treasury Yield

rates

3.95%

-0.10

Tracking expected Fed cuts. Below 4% suggests easing is priced.

FRED · US TreasuryPrior 4.05

T10Y2Y

10Y-2Y Spread

rates

23.0bp

-4.00

Curve un-inverted in mid-2024. Positive territory now, but flat. Recession risk eased.

FRED · Treasury yield curvePrior 27

CPIAUCSL

CPI Inflation (YoY)

inflation

2.6%

-0.20

Down from a 9.1% peak in mid-2022. Approaching but not yet at the Fed's target.

BLS · Consumer Price IndexPrior 2.8

PCEPILFE

Core PCE (YoY)

inflation

2.4%

-0.20

Sticky services component finally easing. 2.4% is the lowest since early 2021.

BEA · Personal Consumption ExpendituresPrior 2.6

UNRATE

Unemployment Rate

labor

4.1%

-0.10

Tight labor market continuing. Below the long-run NAIRU estimate of 4.5%.

BLS · Current Population SurveyPrior 4.2

PAYEMS

Nonfarm Payrolls (chg)

labor

187.0k

+31.00

Above the 150k breakeven. Slowing from 2022 highs but still expanding.

BLS · Employment SituationPrior 156

GDPC1

Real GDP Growth (QoQ ann.)

growth

2.4%

-0.70

Slowing from a 3%+ pace but no recession. Soft landing scenario intact.

BEA · National AccountsPrior 3.1

NAPM

ISM Manufacturing PMI

growth

50.2idx

+0.70

Just crossed back above 50 for the first time since 2022. Goods sector recovering.

Institute for Supply ManagementPrior 49.5

VIXCLS

VIX (S&P 500 vol)

risk

16.2idx

-2.30

Below 20 = calm. Above 30 = stressed. Currently below the 30-yr median of 19.

CBOE · Volatility IndexPrior 18.5

BAMLH0A0HYM2

High-Yield Credit Spread

risk

305.0bp

-15.00

Tight. Below the 10-yr median of 425bp. Markets pricing in low default risk.

ICE BofA US HY Master II OASPrior 320

DTWEXBGS

Dollar Index (DXY)

fx

103.4idx

-1.80

Weakening on Fed cuts. Headwind for USD, tailwind for international stocks.

ICE · USD vs basket of major FXPrior 105.2